The Armenian Observer Journal

With only six hours to go till the polling stations close in Armenia, the international media seem to be largely uninterested in the developments here, with very basic coverage of the elections only available from major international news agencies, as well as the BBC and Euronews.

The elections are largely described as a transfer of power from outgoing leader Robert Kocharyan to his ally and prime minister Serzh Sarksyan. All international media reports point to economic growth, as the main factor in favor of Serzh Sargsyan - described as the clear frontrunner, although some point to doubts about the validity of the polls indicating Prime Minister's high rating.

The BBC describes the Armenian elections as "fiercely-contested", resulting from the dramatic comeback of Armenia's former President Levon Ter-Petrosian as an opposition candidate.

Bloomberg is mostly concentrating on the possibility of street protests by the opposition over raising concerns that the vote may be rigged. The information service points to the fact, that Armenia is under pressure from U.S. and the European Union to strengthen its democracy at a time when it is receiving hundred of millions of dollars in aid, indicating, that there have already been charges against the authorities by the main opposition challenger Levon Ter-Petrossian of government attempts to control the vote and ensure Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan's victory.

Reuters also notes, the opposition claims, that the campaign has been unfair, and predicts street protests, as in the case of previous elections in Armenia which "have been followed by mass opposition protests alleging ballot fraud. However, the news service notes the polls, which "give Sarksyan a lead over the rest of the field, led by former former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasaryan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan, a former president who was forced to resign in 1998 but is now seeking a comeback, and quotes Sarksyan saying:"
If there is a second round I would prefer to fight against Levon Ter-Petrosyan".

Euronews is highlighting the fact, that "failure of the opposition to unite around a single candidate has boosted Sarksyan's chances", and predicting, that upon election "Sarksyan will have to deal with the so-called "frozen" conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh".

The "Nagorno-Karabakh" perspective is also covered by Agence France-Presse, which also indicates, that Serzh Sarkisian, seen as the fruntrunner, is likely to follow in Kocharian's footsteps if elected -- pursuing close ties with Moscow and maintaining a hawkish stance in relations with neighbouring Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Originally posted at The Armenian Observer Blog

Photos: Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Armenia Election Monitor 2008 brings the first photos of the election day - "Finally the day has arrived", writes Onnik Krikoryan with relief, "Whatever the outcome one thing is certain. In this round or a possible second, Armenia will elect a new president in a vote that international observers hope will represent a marked improvement over the last presidential election in 2003."

in Armenian

Despite rapid political developments and political campaign pouring onto the Armenian voter from all sides, many people haven't yet made up their mind about which presidential candidate to support. The situation is similar offline - that is to say in real life, as well as online - in the virtual reality of Internet diaries. «Which is the right thing - having a stance, or not?», Christina is asking in her «One day...» blog, further explaining:

I can't decide on my stance for the upcoming presidential elections. I want a change - but I don't see anyone, who could show me - a regular person with mediocre abilities and feelings, the way to those changes.

( Read more... )

The week was eventful, and while the traditional media in Armenia are pondering their adequate response, so as to avoid "unnecessary complications", the Armenian Internet community were discussing the comings and goings of the current political scene full speed. ( Read more... )

The week concluded with the appearance of the Levonator and Serzhadevil (see photos posted at the start of this article), which completely frustrated some of the more balanced Bloggers. Ogostos being one of them called for Bloggers to stop making fun of the photos of candidates and return to a more acceptable level of debates.

Leading Armenian Online News resource - A1plus has launched an official YouTube Channel at http://www.youtube.com/a1plusnews address, where news, videos, archive materials and exclusive videos, not published even on the main A1plus website will be made available. The first video uploaded so far is a funny one. At the Press Conference Levon Ter-Petrossian gave on January 11th, days after the publication of his pre-election program, the Regnum correspondent starts a question to the First President, starting with the words: "Mr President, when you are elected..." and then suddenly sneezes. This triggers a wave of laughter, because Armenians believe, that sneezing indicates truthfulness of a statement, hence, she seems to be confirming, that Ter-Petrossian will be elected.

Well, I guess it takes more then a sneeze to become the President of Armenia, but the video is excellent anyway. Thanks to A1plus for making it available.

Original post at The Armenian Observer Blog.

Via EAFJD I found this interesting lecture of His Excellency Ara Papian, where he proves, that Armenia has all legal grounds to demand from Turkey to return its lands, and that the land area of Armenia should be 103,599 sq/km, instead of 29,800 sq/km internationally recognized area of today.

I personally find it hard to believe, that anything or anyone can force Turkey to give up its land area to Armenia. However, I think that people like Ara Papian and Armen Ayvazyan, who's views on Armenia-Turkish relations are often qualified as "extremist" and "leading to nowhere", are doing something really important. We need these views to be spoken out loud, and heard. We need even to press for them on the state policy level and excerpt as much pressure on Turkey as possible. Diplomacy is one big trade after all - and we need to start with the maximum price and go gradually down, to where both sides can compensate and reach an acceptable solution.
I think the Armenian state policy of today is rather week on that matter - we don't even know what that policy is to be honest. They say "resumption of diplomatic relations without pre-conditions" and they don't even say what the state policy is on the matter of Genocide recognition. Once Onnik Krikoryan asked me, what would I consider satisfactory solution of Armenia-Turkey relations. My answer:

1. Turkey must recognize the Armenian Genocide.
2. Turkey must pay due remunerations to Diaspora Armenians and those in the territory of Armenia, who have lost the lives of their relatives during the Genocide.
3. Turkey should open the border.
4. Turkey should give Armenia privileged access to one of its port-cities and tax-free passage through its territory from Armenia to that port-city and back.

Did I forget anything?

Last week, the main topics discussed in the Armenian blogosphere were the election manifesto of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian and the presidential election in neighboring Georgia. It's no wonder that many are now wondering, including bloggers themselves, if politics isn't the driving force behind blogs in Armenia.

“Before the last parliamentary election, the Armenian blogosphere gained serious strength and politics became the driving force behind blogs,” wrote local analyst Samvel Martirosyan on his new Armenian-language blog [ARM]. The blogger is already widely known for his Russian language blog, Kornelij Glas [RUS].

On the one hand, the upcoming elections had the same effect on the Armenian network. On the other, the development of blogs introduced a fresh (for Armenia), but not pleasant “novelty.”

( Read more... )

This post was originally published at Echannel and crossposted at the GlobalVoicesOnline.org.

Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Vigorous politicisation of the Armenian section of Internet is observed as the February 19 Presidential elections draw near. A number of official websites endorsing different candidates have been launched. Already there are websites for Levon Ter-Petrossian, Vazgen Manukyan, Vahan Hovhannisyan, Artur Baghdasaryan and Serge Sargsyan (sorted in the order I found out about them, many thanks to Onnik Krikoryan for pointing me to these sites). Sections related to the elections have appeared in the websites of Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia/ Bargavach Hayastan and United Liberal National Party/MIAK parties.

Passport and invitations department at RA police has presented the list of Armenian voters based on polling stations to the Central Electoral Commission, which has been placed in the Central Electoral Commission’s website, and as was the case with the previous elections, every Internet connected voter may check their names in the list and find out which polling station they will be voting, and where that particular station is located. By the way, 2 311 917 voters were registered this time, which is 5 983 less then the previous - May 12, 2007 Parliamentary elections.

A range of information websites dedicated to the upcoming elections have been launched, including the http://elections.a1plus.am/ of A1plus, http://www.echannel.am - by Internews Armenia and http://www.elections2008.am - by MediaMax News Agency. Nearly all news, information and interactive web portals offer Internet polls of various integrity and very contradictory results. It seems that the biggest number of voters have taken part in the Online Poll at the Persons.am, with Levon Ter-Petrossian leading by 52%, followed by Vahan Hovhannisyan at 16% and Serge Sargsyan with 15%. This poll however most likely grossly falsified, because I was able to vote for my favourite candidate - Vahan Hovhannisyan at least 4 times, with no obvious difficulty. A more secure online poll carried out at Uzogh’s blog has revealed, that of 136 bloggers taking part at the vote, majority are supporting Vazgen Manukyan - holding 32% of the voter sympathy.

Armenian blogs and the Armenian section of the video-sharing service YouTube present a special case. One can discuss, curse and blackmail any presidential candidate or all of them at once. As veteran-bloger Samvel Martirosyan has rightly noted, one can even conduct virtual rallies and demonstrations on the blogosphere. A range of agitational blogs have been registered in the LiveJournal section of the Armenian blogosphere, who are carrying out a rather rough and inefficient electoral campaigns among the bloggers in favor of their preferred candidates - Levon Ter-Petrossian and Serge Sargsyan, but doing it in such a dumb manner, that their efforts are triggering general discontent and anger of the already established bloggers, rather then achieving anything.

One thing however remains a puzzle for me looking at all this internetised electoral campaign - with Internet usage among the general population in Armenia remaining much too low to have any substantial impact, what, why and for whom are all these internet resources created? What are all these efforts for? It is really hard for me to imagine, that an average statistical voter would bother to check, if Artur Baghdasaryan or Vahan Hovhannisyan have already uploaded their campaign manifesto on their nice new pre-election websites or no…

With the initiative of Sksela youth movement and support of Center for Regional Development / Transparency Armenia, a group of 34 journalists and civil society activists,  including representatives of Sksela youth movement, CRD / TI, Committee to Protect Freedom of Expression, Yerevan Press Club, Helsinki Citizens Assembly - Yerevan, PanArmenian Association of Women visited Gyumri today, to take part in the rally staged in support of Gala TV company, which has come under the attack of tax inspection service and Gyumri municipality, after its refusal to comply with the directions of the authorities, not to broadcast the announcement about the first opposition rally on October 26 with the participation of Former President Levon Ter-Petrossian.

Around 1000 people gathered at the rally in support of the small regional TV company, despite the freezing cold. E-channel has more:

Armed with the posters Paws off from Gala, our Favorite Child!; Authorities change, Freedom is eternal; Enemies of Freedom of Speech will be punished by the Law and, Public Ignorance, and that Day will come by the Damnation of God, the gathering organizers and participants left Asparez journalists’ club for the Theater Square in Gyumri.

[]

Levon Barseghyan, the chairman of Asparez club opened the meeting on behalf of the headquarters of freedom of speech and Gala support. He briefly presented the recent events around Gala, repeating that the officials involved in this case will have to answer for it.
“I am glad that here we have everybody that considers himself free, that is not scared to protect his and others’ freedom, that has understood that people closing Gala TC yesterday closed A1+ and Noyan Tapan and tomorrow are going to dictate to them how to live, how to breathe, what to listen to, what to watch, and how to think. We are not going to permit closing of Gala – they will not manage to do it,” Levon Barseghyan said.

[]

At the end of the meeting, Levon Barseghyan congratulated the coming New Year of the gathered people, promising “to bring black New Year over those closing Gala” if that rally and their protests had no influence. The last sentence was also awarded by the encouragement of the gathered people.

[Via Echannel: 2007-12-13 05:31] At the Gyumri residence of the commercial court, the trial City administration against Gala TV company has been accompanied by the demonstration of protest conducted by the TV company supporters in front of the court building.

( Read more... )

One cannot help wondering - just how far the authorities of Armenia are ready to push this micro-war with this small regional TV company, which is simply attempting to protect its editorial independence.

Ahead of February 2008 Presidential elections to be held in Armenia, the recent developments in the Armenian politics have greatly antagonized the Armenian media landscape, triggering a range of negative trends in the coverage of political, social, economic reporting issues.

( Read more... )

This video of Vazgen Manukyan, which Uzogh has kindly posted on his blog, brings the criticisms of Vazgen Manukyan, the chairman of the National Democratic Union, and is "the first bell of warning for Levon's Witnesses*" according to the blogger.

E-channel further reports:

The NDU chairman will not have a positive response to Levon Ter-Petrossian’s statement on November 16, urging “to join the national movement against Kocharyanaserzh state of robbers.”
As told by Liberty radio station, Vazgen Manukyan has said, “Levon Ter-Petrossian is indebted to our people. Levon Ter-Petrossian has been in power for 8 years. By being elected a president in 1991, he swore that all the state laws should be implemented, and promised that we would have Armenia as it is written in the declaration. After that, he violated all his obligations. In 1996, he stole the votes not from me – he stole the votes from you, from the whole nation. Now there are talks that commissions were working at that time, or something else… But that is a lie because it was the army that has voted several times and done ballot drop-ins. After all, at 12:00 or 01:00, when they saw that Levon Ter-Petrossian was being defeated, hey closed all the polling stations, threw out our people and calculated the way they wanted to do, after which acts of violence took place. When a person is indebted but takes no responsibility for that debt is able to skillfully explain everything without mentioning his responsibility. Has he come here to borrow from our people? I even think it was wrong for him to get nominated.”
“I don’t think that the task is about joining people together for dismissing “the famous forces.” These authorities must leave, that is unavoidable but who is coming instead? I see that the same forces will be in power… So, should we take the same carousel all the time?” Manukyan has continued, commenting on Ter-Petrossian’s speech.
As told by A1+, Vazgen Manukyan has also declared that if Serzh Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrossian pass to the second round in the elections, “it can turn Serzh Sargsyan into legitimate authorities.”

*As of late the Anti-Ter-Petrossian bloggers among the LiveJournal Blogging community have started calling Levon Ter-Petrossian’s supporters - Levon’s witnesses in analogy to Jehovah’s Witnesses Sect.

As it has been noted earlier on several occasions on this blog, the leader of the opposition Heritage party, Former Foreign Minister of Armenia Raffi Hovhannisyan, has been applying for Armenian citizenship since 1991, however, it was only granted to him in 2001 by President Robert Kocharyan. According to Article 50 of the Armenian Constitution, in order to be eligible to run for president the candidates must be older then thirty five, and must have been citizen of the Republic of Armenia for the preceding ten years, having permanently resided in the Republic for the preceding ten years. Hence, at the moment Raffi hovhannisyan is not eligible to run for president, despite the fact, that Heritage party led by him is one of two opposition factions represented in Parliament and Raffi Hovhannisyan is the opposition figure with highest rating among population according to a recent survey by British ComRes organization.

Many people received an email today from Info Heritage containing MS Word and PDF attachments sent by the Heritage Party. The English translation of the attachments is posted on the E-channel.am information portal, here are some extracts:

 

Prime-Minister Serge Sargsyan responded to some of the points made by Levon Ter-Petrossian during the opposition rally on November 16, 2007. Speaking of the 3 year time period, Levon Ter-Petrossian said he needed to put things in normal and then resign from politics, Serge Sargsyan remarked: “Perhaps he thinks, that 3 years are enough to surrender Karabakh. For me the thoughts pronounced in his speech were very strange, but then, it is up to each one of us to decide, what to say and what suggestions to make”.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s a pity that Serge Sargsyan decides for himself “what to say and what suggestions to make”, because when he does it, it’s usually not coherent (remember the lapse about Armenians being the easternmost Christian nation in the world?).
We were just discussing the recent speeches with my collegue, Ashot Melikyan, the Chairman of the Committee to Protect Freedom of Speech, and he was remembering, how, Levon Ter-Petrossian spoke about freedom of speech in the times of his rule, whereas ARF-Dashnaktsutyun 13 media outlets were shut down during his time for their political orientation.
Similarly, Serge Sargsyan, Prime-Minister, a political figure who should be best prepared to answer with facts, figures and political prognoses, prefers to respond by claiming, that Levon Ter-Petrossian will “surrender Karabakh”, which is a dirty trick, to say the least, because at this point we haven’t yet heard Ter-Petrossian’s new proposals about Karabakh, and nobody has any ideas, what exactly LTP will propose as regards the Karabakh issue.

In his 1 hour-long speech on the November 16 radical opposition rally, the First President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrossian addressed the charges, claims and accusations brought against him by the supporters of the current administration, especially President Robert Kocharyan and Prime Ministers Serge Sargsyan, responding to them mostly using extracts from documents written by Robert Kocharyan or under his supervision, thus clearly depicting the incumbent president as a liar, person deprived of principles and any sense of decency. The First president avoided even addressing any of the charges by Serge Sargsyan, bouncing them back by saying, that all these charges are as much addressed to Serge Sargsyan himself, as a key member of Ter-Petrossian's government. The First President didn't sound sorry at all, when saying "sorry" only for bringing Kocharyan and Sargsyan into the Armenian government, which he called a "disaster".

The rest of the speech, which was up on A1plus website only 30 minutes after the rally, concentrated on the necessity for improving the current election system by establishing professional electoral committees instead of the current party-based structure and printing the ballot papers outside of Armenia.

Ter-Petrossian again declared his goal for contesting the elections [I have translated this bit, trying to be as literal and close to the original text as possible]:

My goal and the goal of all political forces supporting me, is not gaining high offices. Our only goal instead is impeding the regeneration of the current criminal administration. Our only desire is to have a normal, civilized, rule of law state, and to insure the security, freedom and prosperity of our people, our children and our grandchildren.

So in order to dismiss any doubts, that we have any goals other than this, I also officially state the following: exactly three years after getting the post of president of the Republic of Armenia, I am prepared to abandon politics forever, giving you the possibility to elect a new president of the country in a fully free and legitimate election. [] I need the three year period to clear up these Augean Stables and put the country on normal tracks. By saying normal tracks, I understand a wide-ranging program of actions, which I will present to you in my further speeches and publications.

The rally was crowded - there were at least as many people as during the previous one, perhaps more, although it was really hard to judge because of two stages installed there by the joint efforts of the Republican party and Yerevan municipality to accommodate the concert scheduled for Saturday 17th, the next day of the opposition rally. I estimated more then 15,000 people at first, and apparently the number of participants grew towards the end. This squeezed people into the remaining space, and seemed to create an effect of having more then usual amount of people. The stage had been kindly provided to the opposition to use - and it seemed that Republicans are doing great service to the opposition, by providing their equipment, lights, projectors, etc.

The crowd was also more inspired - responding to the speech very enthusiastically, at least in the tight center where I was standing, and for a moment I felt inspired and elated. I felt, that it's great after all, that Ter-Petrossian decided to come back - the political struggle has become so much more interesting by that. LTP is definitely much more charismatic and a better speaker then any of the politicians in the opposing camp - and today I felt for the first time ever, that he might actually have a chance of winning, because compared to him, Serge Sargsyan seems dull and weak to say the least.

Now, when I soberly view the video's I've made during the rally and read the text of the speech, I can't seem to understand, why was I feeling so good about him? LTP didn't say anything new about the accusations brought against him. Speaking of the 2007 Parliamentary elections and electoral system changes he only reiterated Nikol Pashinyan's claims, which back in May only roused my smile. And yet, somehow, the man had full control of my emotions - I felt I want him to be president!? Charisma? Magic? Whatever it was, he will badly need a lot more of it - because I still don't see more then 10% change of the First President's comeback, and I see close to 0% of reasons, for him to even attempt it at this point.

The International Crises Group have published a report on Nagorno-Karabakh, where they warn Azerbaijan and Armenia to "halt their dangerous arms race and restrain their belligerent rhetoric and instead renew efforts to find a negotiated settlement for the Nagorno-Karabakh region".

While I have serious reservations as to on what authority does this international NGO find it suitable to come in with its advice on a tangled issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, especially as from the media release referenced above one get's the opinion, that it is a pure territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the issue of self-determination by the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians has nothing to do here, demonstrating either a deliberately anti-Armenian position or else - a gross misunderstanding of the situation, there are still some valid points that are made:

Oil money has given Azerbaijan new self-confidence and the means to upgrade its armed forces. It seems to want to postpone any peace deal until the military balance has shifted decisively in its favour. Yerevan, which itself has done surprisingly well economically, has also become more intransigent and increased its own military expenditures. It believes that time is on its side, that Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto independence will become a reality increasingly difficult to ignore. Playing for time is dangerous for all concerned, however. The riskiest period could be around 2012, when Azerbaijan’s oil money is likely to begin to dwindle, and a military adventure might seem a tempting way to distract citizens from economic crisis. Important oil and gas pipelines near Nagorno-Karabakh would likely be among the first casualties of a new war, something Europe and the U.S. in particular have an interest in avoiding.

At any rate, here's a link to the full report in PDF format, as well as its executive summary.

There are 544 recipes, and 94 pieces of cooking advice for those who appreciate Armenian food in this website developed by blogger Gooke, and kindly promoted by Lchak. Pity its only in Russian at this point, but - good undertaking nevertheless. Following my previous post about unicodisator-proxy, this is the second cool Internet-thingy developed by Armenian bloggers. I say - Armenian bloggers are definately coool!

Having officially announced, that the date for the 2008 Presidential elections has been set to 19 February, 2008, CEC chairman Garegin Azaryan has told the journalists that the presidential elections in 2008 “will be free and fair, like the previous ones”. Here are some important dates and deadlines to keep in mind:

The Central Electoral Commission has ratified the agenda for the presidential elections in 2008.

It has been confirmed that TV and radio companies should publish their airtime price list by November 19.

Based on the ratified agenda, CEC will accept the documents on the nomination of presidential candidates from November 21 to December 6, 2007.

Presidential candidates can be registered from December 31, 2007 to January 20, 2008.

Publication of poll results will be prohibited from 20:00, February 12, 2008.

The campaigns for presidential elections shall be conducted from January 21 to February 17.

The election date is February 19.

EC will summarize the preliminary results of presidential elections on February 20, at 20:00. The final results will be published on February 26.

Well it's all clear and everything, but I'm somewhat concerned about that phrase: "like the previous ones". While I acknowledge, that the 2007 Parliamentary elections were "free and fair" in relative terms, I can't see what other "free and fair" elections the CEC chairman means looking back at the 15+ years of independent Armenia's history? And considering all the economic pressures in the shape of tax inspections against LTP supporter MP Khachatur Sukiasyan and Gala TV which is simply trying to carry out independent editorial policy, I don't see how will the upcoming Presidential elections come even close to being free and fair?

Via Echannel: The 11th RPA convention resolved to nominate the party chairman and Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan for the presidential elections to be held on February 19, 2008.</p>

With Levon Ter-Petrossian, the first president of Armenia having announced about his decision to run for President back in October, this announcement coming from the Republican party makes the elections officially bi-polar: there are no doubts anymore, that the two main contenders for the post will be Serge Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrossian.

Interestingly a recent poll conducted by British ComRes pollster shows us, that there are at least 3 opposition figures who are ahead of Ter-Petrossian in their rating. However, the fact that Serge Sargsyan dedicated a part of his speech especially answering the First President's speech on October 26 are a clear indicator, that for him LTP is the only real opponent.

“Levon Ter-Petrossian has so much lost the sense of reality that advises me and the president of the Republic to leave the area of politics. In order to reply in kind, I am going to give a piece of advice as well… It would be better for him to repent, to ask the Armenian people for forgiveness for his, mildly speaking, mistakes. I am sure he is not going to do that since he is full of malice and has irrevocably fallen back from the course of life. His desperate attempts to get back to the presidential office have only one objective, which is not to serve his country and the people in that position but to take revenge on everybody who has ever hurt his feelings,” the RPA chairman said.

Serge Sargsyan also spoke about Armenia that he envisaged 5 years after the elections.

“For any Armenian family, education and knowledge will be the value in biggest demand. Mutual respect, love and leniency will be an inseparable part of our way of life. I see strong, large, traditional Armenian families as a pattern. The income of Armenian families will be at least doubled. Any new family will have a chance to obtain an apartment and a car. I assure you that these objectives are realistic and possible to implement. Thus, let’s go forward towards Armenia of victories, to a winning Armenia,” concluded his speech Serzh Sargsyan, the presidential candidate nominated by RPA.

OK, so now we're all going populist and stuff? :)