The Armenian Observer Journal

Photos: Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Armenia Election Monitor 2008 brings the first photos of the election day - "Finally the day has arrived", writes Onnik Krikoryan with relief, "Whatever the outcome one thing is certain. In this round or a possible second, Armenia will elect a new president in a vote that international observers hope will represent a marked improvement over the last presidential election in 2003."

in Armenian

Ahead of February 2008 Presidential elections to be held in Armenia, the recent developments in the Armenian politics have greatly antagonized the Armenian media landscape, triggering a range of negative trends in the coverage of political, social, economic reporting issues.

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This video of Vazgen Manukyan, which Uzogh has kindly posted on his blog, brings the criticisms of Vazgen Manukyan, the chairman of the National Democratic Union, and is "the first bell of warning for Levon's Witnesses*" according to the blogger.

E-channel further reports:

The NDU chairman will not have a positive response to Levon Ter-Petrossian’s statement on November 16, urging “to join the national movement against Kocharyanaserzh state of robbers.”
As told by Liberty radio station, Vazgen Manukyan has said, “Levon Ter-Petrossian is indebted to our people. Levon Ter-Petrossian has been in power for 8 years. By being elected a president in 1991, he swore that all the state laws should be implemented, and promised that we would have Armenia as it is written in the declaration. After that, he violated all his obligations. In 1996, he stole the votes not from me – he stole the votes from you, from the whole nation. Now there are talks that commissions were working at that time, or something else… But that is a lie because it was the army that has voted several times and done ballot drop-ins. After all, at 12:00 or 01:00, when they saw that Levon Ter-Petrossian was being defeated, hey closed all the polling stations, threw out our people and calculated the way they wanted to do, after which acts of violence took place. When a person is indebted but takes no responsibility for that debt is able to skillfully explain everything without mentioning his responsibility. Has he come here to borrow from our people? I even think it was wrong for him to get nominated.”
“I don’t think that the task is about joining people together for dismissing “the famous forces.” These authorities must leave, that is unavoidable but who is coming instead? I see that the same forces will be in power… So, should we take the same carousel all the time?” Manukyan has continued, commenting on Ter-Petrossian’s speech.
As told by A1+, Vazgen Manukyan has also declared that if Serzh Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrossian pass to the second round in the elections, “it can turn Serzh Sargsyan into legitimate authorities.”

*As of late the Anti-Ter-Petrossian bloggers among the LiveJournal Blogging community have started calling Levon Ter-Petrossian’s supporters - Levon’s witnesses in analogy to Jehovah’s Witnesses Sect.

Prime-Minister Serge Sargsyan responded to some of the points made by Levon Ter-Petrossian during the opposition rally on November 16, 2007. Speaking of the 3 year time period, Levon Ter-Petrossian said he needed to put things in normal and then resign from politics, Serge Sargsyan remarked: “Perhaps he thinks, that 3 years are enough to surrender Karabakh. For me the thoughts pronounced in his speech were very strange, but then, it is up to each one of us to decide, what to say and what suggestions to make”.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s a pity that Serge Sargsyan decides for himself “what to say and what suggestions to make”, because when he does it, it’s usually not coherent (remember the lapse about Armenians being the easternmost Christian nation in the world?).
We were just discussing the recent speeches with my collegue, Ashot Melikyan, the Chairman of the Committee to Protect Freedom of Speech, and he was remembering, how, Levon Ter-Petrossian spoke about freedom of speech in the times of his rule, whereas ARF-Dashnaktsutyun 13 media outlets were shut down during his time for their political orientation.
Similarly, Serge Sargsyan, Prime-Minister, a political figure who should be best prepared to answer with facts, figures and political prognoses, prefers to respond by claiming, that Levon Ter-Petrossian will “surrender Karabakh”, which is a dirty trick, to say the least, because at this point we haven’t yet heard Ter-Petrossian’s new proposals about Karabakh, and nobody has any ideas, what exactly LTP will propose as regards the Karabakh issue.

In his 1 hour-long speech on the November 16 radical opposition rally, the First President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrossian addressed the charges, claims and accusations brought against him by the supporters of the current administration, especially President Robert Kocharyan and Prime Ministers Serge Sargsyan, responding to them mostly using extracts from documents written by Robert Kocharyan or under his supervision, thus clearly depicting the incumbent president as a liar, person deprived of principles and any sense of decency. The First president avoided even addressing any of the charges by Serge Sargsyan, bouncing them back by saying, that all these charges are as much addressed to Serge Sargsyan himself, as a key member of Ter-Petrossian's government. The First President didn't sound sorry at all, when saying "sorry" only for bringing Kocharyan and Sargsyan into the Armenian government, which he called a "disaster".

The rest of the speech, which was up on A1plus website only 30 minutes after the rally, concentrated on the necessity for improving the current election system by establishing professional electoral committees instead of the current party-based structure and printing the ballot papers outside of Armenia.

Ter-Petrossian again declared his goal for contesting the elections [I have translated this bit, trying to be as literal and close to the original text as possible]:

My goal and the goal of all political forces supporting me, is not gaining high offices. Our only goal instead is impeding the regeneration of the current criminal administration. Our only desire is to have a normal, civilized, rule of law state, and to insure the security, freedom and prosperity of our people, our children and our grandchildren.

So in order to dismiss any doubts, that we have any goals other than this, I also officially state the following: exactly three years after getting the post of president of the Republic of Armenia, I am prepared to abandon politics forever, giving you the possibility to elect a new president of the country in a fully free and legitimate election. [] I need the three year period to clear up these Augean Stables and put the country on normal tracks. By saying normal tracks, I understand a wide-ranging program of actions, which I will present to you in my further speeches and publications.

The rally was crowded - there were at least as many people as during the previous one, perhaps more, although it was really hard to judge because of two stages installed there by the joint efforts of the Republican party and Yerevan municipality to accommodate the concert scheduled for Saturday 17th, the next day of the opposition rally. I estimated more then 15,000 people at first, and apparently the number of participants grew towards the end. This squeezed people into the remaining space, and seemed to create an effect of having more then usual amount of people. The stage had been kindly provided to the opposition to use - and it seemed that Republicans are doing great service to the opposition, by providing their equipment, lights, projectors, etc.

The crowd was also more inspired - responding to the speech very enthusiastically, at least in the tight center where I was standing, and for a moment I felt inspired and elated. I felt, that it's great after all, that Ter-Petrossian decided to come back - the political struggle has become so much more interesting by that. LTP is definitely much more charismatic and a better speaker then any of the politicians in the opposing camp - and today I felt for the first time ever, that he might actually have a chance of winning, because compared to him, Serge Sargsyan seems dull and weak to say the least.

Now, when I soberly view the video's I've made during the rally and read the text of the speech, I can't seem to understand, why was I feeling so good about him? LTP didn't say anything new about the accusations brought against him. Speaking of the 2007 Parliamentary elections and electoral system changes he only reiterated Nikol Pashinyan's claims, which back in May only roused my smile. And yet, somehow, the man had full control of my emotions - I felt I want him to be president!? Charisma? Magic? Whatever it was, he will badly need a lot more of it - because I still don't see more then 10% change of the First President's comeback, and I see close to 0% of reasons, for him to even attempt it at this point.

Having officially announced, that the date for the 2008 Presidential elections has been set to 19 February, 2008, CEC chairman Garegin Azaryan has told the journalists that the presidential elections in 2008 “will be free and fair, like the previous ones”. Here are some important dates and deadlines to keep in mind:

The Central Electoral Commission has ratified the agenda for the presidential elections in 2008.

It has been confirmed that TV and radio companies should publish their airtime price list by November 19.

Based on the ratified agenda, CEC will accept the documents on the nomination of presidential candidates from November 21 to December 6, 2007.

Presidential candidates can be registered from December 31, 2007 to January 20, 2008.

Publication of poll results will be prohibited from 20:00, February 12, 2008.

The campaigns for presidential elections shall be conducted from January 21 to February 17.

The election date is February 19.

EC will summarize the preliminary results of presidential elections on February 20, at 20:00. The final results will be published on February 26.

Well it's all clear and everything, but I'm somewhat concerned about that phrase: "like the previous ones". While I acknowledge, that the 2007 Parliamentary elections were "free and fair" in relative terms, I can't see what other "free and fair" elections the CEC chairman means looking back at the 15+ years of independent Armenia's history? And considering all the economic pressures in the shape of tax inspections against LTP supporter MP Khachatur Sukiasyan and Gala TV which is simply trying to carry out independent editorial policy, I don't see how will the upcoming Presidential elections come even close to being free and fair?

Again via Romamerda1 we have updates from the latest developments about the arrest of Nicol Pashinyan and other members of “Impeachment” party who, as the video description says, “were unjustly imprisoned for 8 hours on 23 October in Yerevan. After the meeting with the 1st president Ter-Petrosyan, police finally freeds them at 3:20am.” A large group of people was chanting “Battle,battle until the end” and applausing president Levon Ter-Petrosyans and others.

I find it VERY SIGNIFICANT to note, that the police have freed the prisoners after the meeting with the 1st president Ter-Petrosyan. I am lost, not understanding what to make of it all, and so are most of the bloggers I’m reading, who have covered the story.

Armenia 2008 Election Monitor blog covered the story at length yesterday:

RFE/RL reports that “at least a dozen” opposition activists supportive of former president Levon Ter Petrosian have been detained. Their crime? In lieu of having access to the broadcast media to advertise Friday’s rally at which Ter Petrosian is due to speak, the activists used megaphones to announce the meeting on the streets of the Armenian capital, Yerevan. One of those detained is believed to be the outspoken editor of the pro-Ter Petrosian Haykakan Zhamank newspaper, Nikol Pashinian.
[]
Given that the capital is full of people setting up loudspeakers at kiosks or even simple tables selling CDs on street corners even though they deafen passer-bys and local residents, as well as the dozens of entertainment complexes opened by corrupt officials and their relatives in public parks, the action does not appear at first glance to warrant such a response. It is unknown so far whether the activists obstructed traffic or otherwise “disturbed the peace.”
At any rate, with Friday’s rally looming ever closer, tensions seem to be rising. In part this is because however unpopular Ter Petrosian might have been, he is seen as the lesser of two evils by a significant number of people when quizzed about their voting preference for next year’s presidential election. Quite simply, they say, anyone is better than Serzh Sarkisian.
No wonder then, that the authorities and the ruling Republican party of the prime minister, presidential hopeful Serzh Sarkisian, are taking Friday’s rally very seriously indeed. Some would argue that they’re reacting in a manner that does not befit any country supposedly on the path towards democratization.

Mark Grigoryan says the opposition has great hopes on the rally scheduled for October 26th, which is likely to become the start of Armenia’s former President Levon Ter-Petrossian’s presidential campaign. The blogger notes, that although Yerevan authorities haven’t prevented the rally, the Republican party is organizing a free concert coinciding with the opposition rally, and mentions information about preparations of police forces. “Are they really so scared of them [the opposition]?” asks Mark Grigoryan with surprise concluding his analysis of the situation.
Other reports of the story can be found on Bekaisa, Armenianewsblog, Armenian Breaking News, Narjan, really interesting eyewitness account by David_Sand with a second post, detailing his view on the developments here:

Honestly speaking, it is hard to imagine better PR for an oppositionist, than his arrest not long before a scheduled rally. I can’t find an explanation to the arrest of the editors of “Armenian Times” and the “Forth Power”. This might be a result of police stupidity or carefully prepared PR. At any rate, this is how it all looked:

- police arrest editors of opposition newspapers, calling in the street for the citizens to come to the opposition rally,

- opposition gathers at the police department (and by the way - the representatives of parliamentary minority are also there), together with human right defenders, journalists and inhabitants of houses close to the police department,

- Levon Ter-Petrosian arrives, and everybody starts shouting “Levon, Levon”, as if the savior has come and brought the key to all problems of opposition,

- in a couple of hours the arrested are set free, which in the eyes of the public raises the authority of Ter-Petrosian.

The blogger also notes, that TV has ceased to serve as a source of information - because from his observations, there was no coverage of the events in the TV news reports. I can state that there was pretty good coverage on Yerkir Media TV - but that is the exception, proving the point made by David_Sand.

One of my absolute favorite bloggers, Pigh - is scandalous and against Levon Ter-Petrosian as ever:

Everything, everything, everything is done to make sure they have stuff to talk about at the rally… tomorrow, perhaps they’ll get somebodies head broken, and everything is to make sure there is a fresh topic to discuss…

[]

There is an impression, that Levon has lot’s of support among oligarchs, although, if you look at it soberly, why not? Grzo, Lfik, Tsarukyan were all the creations of Vanik Smbatovich… (former Minister of Internal Affairs during LTP rule).

Very interestingly Pigh connects the recent price rises of sugar, which drew considerable public discontent with the current authorities, with the coming of LTP and the wish of oligarchs, supportive of the ex-president, to help him, by irritating the public with sudden price hikes on the eve of the presidential elections.

Mark Grigoryan reports, that the "Reporters sans frontiers" annual Worldwide Press Freedom Index has been released, and brings the places occupied by the countries of post-soviet space, contesting them with the ratings of UK and USA:

Estonia - 3-4 Latvia – 12 Lithuenia – 23 UK – 24 USA – 48 Georgia – 66 Armenia – 77 Moldova – 81 Ukraine – 92-93

Kyrgyzstan – 110 Tajikistan – 115 Kazakhstan – 125 Azerbaijan – 139 Russia – 144 Belarus – 151 Uzbekistan – 160 Turkmenistan – 167

There is a total of 169 countries in the list. The full list can be found here (on the organization's site).

Uzogh has done some research on the subject and come up with an interesting question: "With Azerbaijan everything is clear - they just like to put journalists to jail. With Georgia everything is clear too. What I don't understand is our rating - we have jumped from 101st place to 77th. How did that happen?" There are some really interesting speculations in the comments section of Uzogh's blog around the subject, but I suggest you go take a look at them there (if you know Russian of course).

Here are also a couple of links for your convenience:
Worldwide Press Freedom Index 2007, Questionnaire for compiling a 2007 world press freedom index, Worldwide Press Freedom Index 2006, Questionnaire for compiling a 2006 world press freedom index